The Republican National Convention is now part of history. Tomorrow we begin the 60 day sprint to the November 4 election. History has been made by both parties with the nomination by the primary system of Senator Obama – arguably the most inexperienced candidate in modern history – and the nomination by candidate selection of Governor Palin – also a newcomer to the national scene.
Charles Krauthammer in his opinion piece, Incumbents for Change?, feels that the selection of Governor Palin fatally undermines the best line of attack against Obama – that is his relative youth and inexperience. I have expressed that concern previously but I now have revised my argument to reflect re-examination of events. You may read Charles’ article <here>
The primary election process, in my view, eliminated the experience argument. In a year when the incumbent administration is totally unrepresented in this election – because of the baggage of the last eight years, Hillary made the fatal mistake of attaching her future to the experience argument and ceded the higher ground of change to Obama in the primaries. Hillary could have run for change as the first woman candidate for President but she chose to claim that her experience in the administration of her husband gave her a mantle of an experienced incumbent. The claim was ridiculous and she consigned her campaign to the scrap heap of history. Senator McCain needs to pay attention (and he has). The voters in the primaries rejected the inexperience card.
Then, in my view, Senator Obama made his fatal mistake. He made the most traditional selection of Senator Biden for his running mate. Biden is a six term senator with years of experience on the foreign relations committee – but also several poor showings as a national vote getter with multiple abortive attempts in Presidential elections. Obama went, in my view, from being the young exciting candidate for change to being the candidate of the establishment with the most liberal Senator joining with the third most liberal Senator as running mate who also is one of the more senior on the block. I believe that the intervention of history, that is the invasion of former Soviet Georgia by Vladimir Putin, may have caused Senator Obama to realize that the question of foreign policy experience might rear its ugly head and spotlight his thin resume. His admission of his own weakness may have led him to a critical decision.
I think it is also a victory of arrogance and personalities over politics. Obama could have chosen Hillary as VP and gotten the benefit of her star power and elements of change she might represent on account of gender. I believe he was overconfident and was already looking forward to taking office without Hillary camping out in the West Wing. Bill Clinton had the star power that Obama has. But Bill ran as (and is) a more moderate democrat which Obama (and Biden) is not.
Finally, it appears to me that the Obama campaign may have peaked back in June when he became the presumptive nominee. His campaign floundered as he no longer had Hillary to fight. Then on the eve of the convention, Obama may have taken a step backward with his selection of the establishment figure, Joe Biden, as his wing man.
In the meantime, John McCain takes an uncharacteristic, bold step which changes the race in a variety of ways. Knowing that the primary voters have opted for change rather than experience on the Democrat side, Senator McCain selects a woman – and a gutsy, bright, formidable woman at that – as his running mate. Suddenly McCain, the older, establishment figure on the right becomes the agent for change and shakes up the election process with his selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Fate also takes a hand with the intervention of Hurricane Gustav. I believe that the delay of the Republican convention will be beneficial to the candidate and his party at the minor expense of an extra day of electioneering (although Adam Putnam, Florida Congressman in whom I have an interest lost his opportunity to speak to the National Convention audience). In addition to avoiding the possible Dr Zhivago images of the Republican party of the wealthy partying in Minnesota while New Orleans – site of one of the real failures of the Bush Presidency – faced potential destruction again, Gustav also showed the efficiency of the Republican administration of Bobby Jindal and the President with the FEMA and DHS departments of the federal government as they faultlessly and efficiently evacuated two million residents out of harms way during the approach of the storm. I believe that this series of events subtly changed the memories of Katrina and cast the Republicans in a sensitive and humanitarian light (well at least briefly). Delaying the convention was not only the right thing to do, but it was good politics too.
It happens that a number of other issues are significantly improving as the Bush administration enters its final days. Relations with Europe are at high levels, making the Democrat line of damage to relations with foreign allies sound disingenuous and incorrect. Progress is being made in the Middle East as Israel and the Palestinians approach (cautiously) the possibility of agreements. Secretary of State Rice will pay a visit to Libya next week - the first visit by an American SecState since 1953. There appears to be progress in Iraq (I note the Anbar province - a major success story - has been turned over to Iraqi control) and Afghanistan. Minor incursions into Pakistan border areas appear to be applying pressure on the new government there. Signs of economic recovery are beginning to appear. If relative success can be maintained for two months, The Bush administration should be going out on a series of high notes, muting much of the criticism of the over-anxious media and team Obama. Some of these situations are in a delicate balance and bad news is possible too.
Last Friday, Sarah Palin greeted the national audience with a very strong performance in Ohio in her first joint appearance with John McCain. The leftist media countered with a series of despicable personal attacks that centered around the personal life of one of her daughters. Not only did the media look into the personal life of the children, they suggested that Mom ought to stay home and tend her own house rather than entertain visions of the White House and Washington politics. The clear sexist message should bring waves of condemnation from working mothers everywhere. The media is clearly asking questions that would never be asked of a man. Is any male politician considered unfit for election because they have children ? If the stories talked of Governor Palin as a working mom instead of a Vice Presidential candidate, would the question have any validity. This is a serious challenge to our concepts of gender equality and women everywhere should feel some empathy with Governor Palin. Can that be converted to votes in November ?
Then we have the powerhouse performance of Governor Palin in her Convention speech last night. Despite the pressure of the media attacks, she appeared to be composed, articulate, competent, professional and in control. She told her story, laid out some of her accomplishments and policies and took some satisfying swings at team Obama. She continued to display the WOW factor that has been her stock in trade, completely won the hearts of the thousands of party faithful housed in the Convention Center and reassured the home audience of 37 million people that she was a force to be reckoned with and a champion in her own right and on the McCain-Palin ticket. It was fun to watch.
So where do we go from here. The experience argument should fade slightly. Where pursued, the new line is that the Republicans have their training program at the bottom of their ticket – the Democrats have theirs at the top. But it is time to start talking about issues and policies. There is a mere 60 days – a short sprint – to the November 4 election. Money favors the democrats, momentum, I believe, now favors the Republicans. The dynamics of the race have changed dramatically. Governor Palin can cater to the conservative base while Senator McCain can concentrate on the independent voters and moderate democrats that he needs to win. Both will concentrate on the battleground states of the Electoral College map. I hope Governor Palin can find time to make appearances in support of Senate and House candidates to try to extend some coat tails (skirt tails?) to salvage the Congress and at least stop the bleeding, if not regain some control of the Senate.
Another dynamic may change in favor of the Republicans. Governor Palin is news – and she will get more coverage than a typical Vice Presidential candidate (time will reveal if that is the good news or the bad news). She will now have to perform in all the other venues that she has not seen yet. The one on one interviews, the gotcha sessions, the unscripted town hall meetings, the Vice Presidential debate, the Sunday morning talk shows. Sarah Palin will have to continue to perform at the high level of expectations she has now set in forums where she will not control the agenda. I believe she will continue to impress and will strongly contribute to the success of the McCain-Palin ticket. It is a heavy burden for the Governor, but for eight weeks, she will carry the weight of the Republican Party on her shoulders. I believe she will be up to the task if she can demonstrate the poise, skill and substance in the small venues that she has already brought to the blockbuster events.
Game on.
Since I have already subjected you to 1500 words, I will merely provide a link to the Charles Krauthammer article referred to above. I disagree with Charles on some points this week, but, as always, find him to be a knowledgeable analyst and an excellent writer. Read his article today at Townhall.com at this <link>.
No comments:
Post a Comment